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Most people assess the risk of elective surgery (e.g., a "nose job") as being safer than nonelective surgery.

A) True
B) False

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Robert is going to "33 Flavors" (with Rhonda) to get a triple-scoop of ice cream. What is the probability that Robert will order Jamocha Almond Fudge, Rocky Road, and Gold Medal Ribbon?


A) 12114
B) 1/ 33 + 1 / 33 + 1 / 33
C) 1 / 33 X 1 / 33 X 1 / 33
D) It is impossible to tell, without knowing how popular those flavors are

E) A) and B)
F) All of the above

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C

Clever gamblers are able to use the "laws of chance" to select winning lottery numbers.

A) True
B) False

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What is the probability of getting a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 on one roll of a single die?


A) 0.3
B) 0.5
C) 0.75
D) 1

E) All of the above
F) C) and D)

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The mistaken belief that the co-occurrence of two or more events is more likely than the occurrence of one of the events alone is called a/an


A) heuristic error.
B) conjunctive error.
C) illusory correlation.
D) gambler's fallacy.
E) None of the above

F) A) and D)
G) A) and E)

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Basketball players tend to shoot in streaks so that a player who has just made a basket is more likely to make a basket on her second throw than if she had just missed the basket.

A) True
B) False

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False

Personal estimates of the probability of uncertain events are called __________; mathematically determined statements about the likelihood of events with known frequencies are called __________.


A) mutual outcomes…..joint outcomes
B) conditional outcomes…..joint outcomes
C) subjective probabilities…..objective probabilities
D) objective probabilities…..subjective probabilities
E) None of the above

F) A) and B)
G) All of the above

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When taking a 5-alternative multiple choice test, you are as likely to get all of the questions correct just by guessing as you are to get all of the questions wrong just by guessing.

A) True
B) False

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Discuss the nature of the laws of chance and the long run.

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Answered by ExamLex AI

Answered by ExamLex AI

The laws of chance refer to the principl...

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The probability of two independent events occurring together is called a __________ probability, while the probability of an event occurring given that another event has occurred is called a __________ probability.


A) joint…..conditional
B) conditional…..joint
C) multiple outcome…..single outcome
D) single outcome…..multiple outcome
E) None of the above

F) B) and E)
G) B) and C)

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The probability of an event occurring over many trials is called its __________.


A) total rate.
B) conditional probability.
C) cumulative probability.
D) uncertainty.

E) B) and D)
F) B) and C)

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The number of ways a particular outcome can occur divided by the total number of possible outcomes is called


A) that event's total rate.
B) that event's probability.
C) that event's occurrence.
D) that event's uncertainty.

E) None of the above
F) A) and B)

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Suppose that your friend plans to become a professional drummer and only 2% of all people who want to become professional drummers actually achieve this goal. In addition, suppose that he has "connections," and 80% of all successful drummers have connections like his. Only 10% of unsuccessful drummers have the same sort of connections. This means that his probability of success would increase slightly above 2%.

A) True
B) False

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The belief that chance processes are self-correcting is called


A) the gambler's fallacy.
B) probability ignorance.
C) overconfidence.
D) conjunction error.

E) C) and D)
F) None of the above

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The "or rule" can only be used when


A) possible outcomes are mutually exclusive.
B) there are more than three possible outcomes.
C) possible outcomes are dependent.
D) conditional probabilities are being considered.
E) All of the above

F) B) and D)
G) C) and D)

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Probabilities near a value of __________ represent maximum uncertainty.


A) 1
B) 25% or 75%
C) 0.5
D) 0 (zero)

E) A) and B)
F) A) and C)

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The probability of two independent events occurring together is __________ __________ __________ the probability of one of those events occurring alone.


A) more likely than
B) less likely than
C) equally likely as
D) completely unrelated to
E) None of the above

F) B) and C)
G) B) and D)

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A risk that is __________ is often perceived to be less risky or less hazardous than other risks.


A) natural
B) involuntary
C) unobservable
D) All of the above
E) None of the above

F) C) and E)
G) B) and D)

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Probabilities based on brief or short "runs" are similar to research results based on


A) small samples.
B) biased samples.
C) nonrepresentative samples.
D) All of the above

E) A) and C)
F) B) and D)

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D

Anyone can figure out the number or percentage of trials on which a particular outcome will occur, because of


A) the rules of logic.
B) the use of circle diagrams.
C) the laws of chance.
D) psychic abilities.

E) B) and D)
F) B) and C)

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